The weight of scientific evidence arguing that biofuels do not offer a solution to climate change continues to grow. Last week two important articles were published in the influential scientific journal Science. Both found that demand for biofuels will drive crop production into forests and grasslands, with the result that huge amounds of carbon will be released into the atmosphere as trees are chopped down and soils ploughed up - so-called 'land use change'.

This should represent another nail in the coffin for the EU's 10% biofuel target. The EU argues that it will include emissions from land use change in its calculations for the carbon savings of biofuels, and that only biofuels which offer savings of 35% or over when compared to fossil fuels will be allowed. But the EU misses the point - the articles make clear that even if new biofuel production causes no land use change itself, it is likely to displace existing food production into forests and grasslands. The overall effect is still a big increase in emissions, but one that is impossible to manage.

Robert Bailey, Oxfam climate change researcher