John Magrath

Uganda's climate is changing. In particular, its once reliable main rainy season from March to June is becoming less so. Paul Isabirye, Principal Meteorological Officer in the Department of Meteorology in the Prime Minister's Office, told me: "Production from the agriculture sector is becoming less and less as we experience more extreme events which are becoming more frequent and more intense, notably droughts. The rain oscillation is becoming bigger, rainfall distribution is poor so planning on seasonal rains is becoming harder and harder".

Poverty is linked to climate and can be induced by climate change. Put simply, lower yields mean less food and greater hunger. More illness is also linked to seasonal climatic variations, with malaria cases, for example, shooting upwards in the rainy season. Ugandans cite illness, with the consequent inability to work and the costs of seeking medical treatment, as the main immediate reason for falling into poverty.

Paul Isabirye

But climate alone, not even the more extreme climate that will be caused by global warming, is rarely the reason people fall into poverty. It can be the trigger, but not the main cause; the proverbial "last straw that broke the camel's back". For example, farmers I spoke to tell how climate change has reduced their yields, but they might be able to buy more food if they got fairer prices - if they had better access to markets and did not have to sell their cocoa or vanilla to middle men at low prices.

Persistent poverty, ill health and desperation make people vulnerable. Reducing vulnerability by tackling poverty, ill health and desperation is essential to be able to cope with bigger climate changes induced by man-made global warming as they really begin to bite in the near future. In Oxfam's experience and analysis poverty is not natural; it is neither part of an ordained scheme of things nor is it primarily due to natural causes. Poverty is made by human beings, and can be removed by them.

Protecting and restoring the environment are also crucial to reduce climate change impacts. Landslides would not be so frequent or severe if it were not for serious deforestation. The floods that hit north and east Uganda late last year would not have been so bad if wetlands had not been drained to grow crops, reducing the ability of the land to absorb water.

Climate change, too, is not natural, but is made by human beings, in the shape of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, as a result of industrialisation in Europe and North America over the last 150 years. Yet the impacts are being felt first and most by people in developing countries like Uganda, whose contribution to global warming has been miniscule.

Climate change does not happen in isolation. It interacts with existing problems and challenges - notably deforestation, soil degradation, declining food security, declining fish stocks - and makes them worse. Adaptation has to start with adaptation to the current climate. The people of Uganda are highly susceptible to present climatic variations and shocks. Building resilience to how the climate is currently changing is vital both in its own right and as a way to build resilience to whatever climatic changes the future has in store. The right strategies to adapt to climate change will also be the right strategies for truly sustainable development, and to reduce poverty.

A new Oxfam report on the impacts of climate change upon poor people in Uganda will be published in late June.

Uganda diary - part 1 | part 2 | part 3 | part 4 | part 5