After two years of negotiating, debating and wrangling, but very little agreement, there now remains just one day. A single day for world leaders, environment ministers and other delegates at the Copenhagen Summit, COP15 as it’s know, to sign a deal that will ensure our climate stays within safe limits over the next decades and centuries.
Like many others who have travelled here, I have put a lot of energy into preparing for this time in Copenhagen and ensuring that something positive comes out of it. But today I go home with the chances of a legally-binding treaty extremely slim.
On Thursday there was at least some progress, as Oxfam welcomed commitments from Gordon Brown that climate aid would be on top of already existing financial support for developing countries.
In his speech at the conference, the Prime Minister said: “To address the gaping sorrows of the left out millions in Africa, the torment of our island states, the fear gripping the planet’s most vulnerable communities, and the urgent need to reduce rates of deforestation, we must commit to additionality in our support so that we do not face a choice between meeting the needs of the planet and meeting the millennium development goals.”
And in a surprising acknowledgment of the ability of rich governments to raise $100 billion (£62 billion) a year by 2020 for this cause, Brown said: “If we can provide the finance to save our banks from the bankers, we can, with the right financial support, save the planet from those forces that would destroy it.”
Oxfam still maintains that at least $200 billion a year is required, and the sooner the better. But at least this is a step in the right direction. Hilary Clinton, also speaking yesterday, echoed Gordon Brown’s sentiment, but said the money would only come if developing countries signed a strong deal in Copenhagen. And that seems unlikely given the ‘chicken and egg’ conundrum between rich and poor negotiating blocks at COP15.
Only one man seems able to salvage a deal now, and that is US President Barack Obama, who arrives this morning. But as we joked at the Klimaforum today, it would need a divine intervention to bridge the gaps of the negotiating process. And as good as Obama is, he doesn’t seem capable of enacting what would need to be a miracle.
With this in mind, away from the Bella Center, discussions have focused on what we should do after Copenhagen has ended. It is a difficult question. So much expectation had been pinned on COP15, that to not have a deal to take away from it is a huge disappointment. But that is the likelihood.
In a lively debate at Klimaforum on Thursday, chaired by environmental journalist George Monbiot, the question was posed: what next? Although it is not ideal, there remains an opportunity again in six months time to agree a legal framework. But it must be strong. In the words of Maldives president Mohamed Nasheed, “Mother Nature does not negotiate”. An emissions reduction of at least 40 per cent by 2020 is unnegotiatable, he says, simply because if it was lowered it would threaten his country’s very existence.
Throughout these two weeks, the underlying theme from Klimaforum has been one of strength in the face of adversity, and unity in the face of common struggles. Going forward, the climate justice movement has generated huge momentum from Copenhagen, in a way that could not have been imagined even a year ago.
A declaration document from this, the People’s Climate Summit, sums up everything we have been fighting for: “Any specific agreement on climate change must be seen in the broader context of achieving a sustainable transition of our societies.
“We, participating people’s organisations at Klimaforum09, commit to continue our full and active engagement in promoting such a transition, which will require a fundamental change in social, political, and economic structures and a rectification of gender, class, race, generational and ethnic inequalities and injustices.”
This document has so far been signed by 295 different organisations, from all over the world. It shows what is possible, when uncompromised by conflicting political and financial interests. It shows what is possible when we are united, not divided. And it shows that, whatever happens today, Copenhagen is not the end, but only the beginning of something very special.
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Tags: climate change, Climate Justice Action, COP15, Copenhagen, Gordon Brown
James, what a profound and timely post. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and providing us a little motivation when we need it. Have a fun trip back to London!
December 18th, 2009 at 10.11 am