“We want a real deal” carved into an ice sculpture outside the Copenhagen climate talks

The dust has now settled on the chaos that was Copenhagen. Presidents, Prime Ministers, delegates, negotiators, and campaigners have headed home (or are at least to battling their way through the Eurostar disaster).

So, after our initial overview about the outcomes of the summit, you may well be wondering ‘what happened and what comes next?’

To try and answer this, Oxfam’s policy team spent the weekend pulling together a fifteen-page report in an attempt to shed some light on these questions. Some of the more important sections are summarised below, or you could take a deep breath and read the entire thing – Climate Shame: Get back to the table.

Emissions reduction and the 2°C target
One of the key victories touted at the end of the summit was the acknowledgement of the need to keep to below 2°C of warming. Sadly, though, this was little more than political rhetoric and a nod of the head toward the science.

As things stand, there are so many loopholes in the Copenhagen Accord that rich-country emissions could be higher in 2020 than in 1990. This puts the world on track for a temperature rise of almost 4°C - the result of which would be catastrophic. According to IPCC’s 2007 report, a 4°C rise could mean: crop yields in Africa falling by 15-35 per cent; up to 300 million people affected by coastal flooding; and between 30-50 per cent less water available in dry regions including southern Africa and the Mediterranean.

Where will the money come from?
One of the best results of the summit is that rich nations agreed to set up a fund to support developing nations as they put their economies on the green path and adapt to the effects of climate change. However, it’s not all good news. It’s not yet clear where the proposed $100billion fund will come from, or whether it will simply be from current aid commitments. Moreover, this amount is just half of what is required.

Is the Accord legally binding?
In the weeks running up to the Copenhagen talks there was much discussion about the need for a ‘legally binding’ agreement. Indeed, this is one of the key outcomes that Oxfam had been pushing for. But what does ‘legally binding’ actually mean? In short, a legally binding deal is the only way of making sure that countries stick to their targets for reducing emissions. Once ratified, a legally binding deal would have gained the status of international law.

Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, the Copenhagen Accord is not legally binding - at least not yet, anyway. As UN climate talks continue into 2010, a wide commitment must be made to ensure negotiations lead to a legally binding agreement.

Fixing the negotiation process
There also needs to be a change in the kind of deal making and brinkmanship that shrouded the Copenhagen talks. Over the course of the talks, counter proposals and leaked documents triggered an atmosphere of mistrust that cost valuable negotiating time.

Before next year’s meeting in Mexico, we need more opportunities for differences between countries to be ironed out. And heads of government must be more involved in the whole process.

Where next?
I imagine that like me and millions of others from across the globe, you feel disheartened and let down by what has happened. But there is still hope. And that hope is the sheer number of people who have raised their voices, written to leaders and taken to the streets to demand action. From the UK’s largest ever climate demonstration, to candlelit vigils in every corner of the globe, to 1.5 million people raising their voices about the effects of climate change – it’s been an incredible year.

Though Copenhagen didn’t live up to expectations, we’ve still come a long way in the last 12 months, and it’s people like you who’ve been at the heart of campaigning every step of the way. At times like these it’s worth reminding ourselves that change takes time.  And often it’s governments that move last - only once public opinion and businesses have moved.

We’d like to take this opportunity to say a big, heartfelt thanks (on behalf of all of us at Oxfam) for everything you’ve done, and invite you to put your feet up over Christmas. Enjoy the holiday season and then, once we’ve taken stock, we can get ready to make ourselves heard and do what it takes to get the FAB (that’s Fair, Ambitious and Binding) climate deal in 2010.

Tags: adaptation, climate change, COP15, Copenhagen, Environment, Global Warming, green

This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009 at 11:36 am and is filed under 'Here & Now' climate change campaign, COP15, Campaigns, Campaigns Blog, Campaigns News, Climate change: analysis, General, You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.