Frequently asked questions about
The Right to Survive report
Is the number of people affected by disasters increasing?
According to Oxfam's latest research, by 2015 more than 375 million people are likely to be affected by climate related disasters - a projected increase of 54% - and this threatens to overwhelm the world's current capacity to respond.
This is likely to be because of a range of combining factors including deepening poverty, an increasing number of natural disasters, and more people vulnerable to them.
In short, the projected rise is due to a combination of entrenched poverty and people migrating to densely populated slums, which are prone to the increasing number of climatic events. This is compounded by the political failure to address these risks and a humanitarian system that is not fit for purpose.
Is climate change the only reason for that?
It is one of the most destructive elements yes, but no one can say that climate change causes 40, 50 or 60% of the growth in disasters. According to Oxfam, the deadly combination of climate change, growing poverty and vulnerability causes the human disaster. The increasing number of 'weather events' will be far more destructive and deadly for people living in poverty than for those who are relatively well off.
For millions of people it is who they are, where they live, whether they can earn a decent livelihood - whether they are rich or poor - that determines how much any event, like a flood or earthquake, will affect them.
If someone lives in an urban slum little above sea level, or has very few assets to sell to get through a crisis, she or he is likely to be far more vulnerable to disasters than others.
Other groups - including women and girls and the chronically sick and elderly - are often vulnerable because their ability to cope with disasters is undermined by discrimination, inequality or their physical health.
But the threat in the future is the lethal combination of the growing number of disasters, more and more people living in areas where those disasters will impact, and continuing poverty and inequality making people vulnerable to them.
Will climate change also impact on conflicts? Are conflicts on the rise or decreasing?
Some of these environmental changes will also increase the threat of new conflicts, which would mean more people displaced, and the need for more humanitarian aid. One recent report estimated that 46 countries will face a 'high risk of violent conflict' when climate change exacerbates traditional security threats.
Overall, the number of conflicts has fallen substantially, but there is little evidence to suggest that that trend will continue. The threat of new wars, the failure of precarious peace deals, the political exploitation of poverty and inequality, and the destabilising impact of climate change all cast doubt on a continued decline in the number of conflicts. All these threats could create serious new humanitarian challenges, while the threat of existing long-running conflicts creating vast new humanitarian demands was painfully shown by the upsurge of violence in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo in 2008.
Is there any hope?
Absolutely. Despite their poverty, some countries such as Cuba, Mozambique and Bangladesh have invested heavily in protecting their people from storms. Following the 1972 super cyclone that killed a quarter of a million people, Bangladesh invested heavily in prevention and protection measures. The death toll from super cyclones in Bangladesh is in the low thousands - still far too high, but much less devastating. The experience of Cuba, Mozambique and Bangladesh shows that with sufficient help, even the world's poorest countries can better protect their citizens.
The point is that there needs to be much more of this - a massive global investment in better humanitarian aid for those caught in all types of humanitarian crisis, 'disaster risk reduction' programmes, adaptation to climate change, and a massive global effort to reduce carbon emissions and so reduce the impact of climate change.
What should be done now?
Oxfam is already helping people to cope with conflict, severe weather events, and also plan for the consequences of future climate change.
We are putting pressure on many developing countries that should do far more to be prepared for and be able to respond to their own emergencies, and help make their people less vulnerable to them.
In 2009 globally, we are also demanding urgent and decisive action on climate change from world leaders that results in a global deal at the Copenhagen Summit in October, that is just and fair for all people, not just those with power and money.
