The forecast for tomorrow: the UK's climate for change

Executive summary

The forecast for tomorrow is a snapshot of a country deeply torn by good and bad climate policies and actions among business, public and government – with each group inextricably bound by the actions of the others. Whether the UK succeeds in achieving its emissions reduction targets and in becoming a leader in international climate negotiations depends on whether good or bad policies prevail. At stake are the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world, who will suffer first and worst from climate change despite being the least responsible for it.

Within the UK, some of the world’s best, most-inspiring progress in tackling climate change is already happening. These solutions far and away outstrip the ambition of the weak carbon-reduction targets now being contested in international climate negotiations. They give great credence to the UK as a genuine world leader in tackling global warming. Conversely, at the same time, a powerful coterie of interests is locked together in the kind of dirty, regressive actions and policies that could undo this progress and derail the UK’s emissions targets. They would also undermine the UK’s international standing and, if unchecked, will help lock the world into a future that will be catastrophic – particularly for the world’s poorest and most-vulnerable people.

The ‘litmus test’ for which one of these competing behaviours will gain ascendancy will be the political decisions being made in the UK over the next few months. These include whether a new coal-fired power plant at Kingsnorth, Kent gets the go-ahead; how progressive the UK’s Climate Change Bill becomes; and whether UK’s renewable-energy targets will enable it to take a leading role in the EU. These decisions and the political, corporate and social climate they reflect will have a huge bearing on the UK’s standing in international climate negotiations, both in Poznan, Poland in December 2008, and in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2009.

As a leader on international development, the UK must also lead the way in tackling climate change to help relieve the impact of global warming on millions of poor people who are being hit hardest, despite contributing least to the problem. The UK must support poor countries and communities to adapt to the inevitable consequences of climate change. But the only way to prevent further violation of their rights to life, security, subsistence, food, and health is to keep global warming below 2°C. Rich countries must act now to reduce emissions; and this is why this document focuses on mitigating our climate impact. As the UK’s representative in the climate negotiations, Secretary of State for the Environment, Hilary Benn, says, ‘We must achieve a fair and substantive deal in Copenhagen. All my efforts will be dedicated to this task, and in the UK we will play our full part.’ South Africa’s Minister for the Environment, Marthinus van Schalkwyk, emphasises the desperate need for leadership on the international stage: ‘We know very well that there are many countries in the G8 grouping that share our ambitious expectations, and therefore it is regrettable that the lowest common denominator in the G8 determined the level of ambition in the group’s declaration on climate change [at Hokkaido, Japan 2008].’

The UK government’s leadership in international negotiations must be matched by decisive action at home, to ensure the UK cuts emissions first, fastest, and furthest. This means recognising the positive inter-relationships happening now between public, private and government behaviour and creating the conditions for these to flourish – while ditching the negative. The UK must set ambitious targets and put in place the means to achieve them if it is to play its part in averting global climate catastrophe. The decisions that the government and the private sector take now, particularly in their energy and transport investments, with the public’s response, will determine the UK’s ‘climate forecast’ for the crucial decades ahead.

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Date of publication: October 2008