Forecasting numbers of people affected annually by natural disasters up to 2015

Summary

Using data from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) in the University of Louvain, the analysis in this paper identifies an underlying upward trend in the numbers of people affected by climate-related disasters since 1980, and makes a projection of the numbers that are likely to be affected by 2015. For the purpose of this analysis, six types of natural disaster types, as defined by CRED, are categorised as climate-related: droughts, extreme temperatures, wildfires, storms, floods, mass movements (wet).

This paper projects that, by 2015, on average over 375 million people per year are likely to be affected by climate-related disasters. This is over 50 per cent more than were affected in an average year during the decade 1998–2007. Limitations in the quality and coverage of data currently available, coupled with the natural volatility in numbers affected in a given time frame, will limit the robustness of statistical forecasting models. Nonetheless, this analysis provides a broad-brush indication of the rising scale of humanitarian need due to climate-related disasters in the relatively near future.

Authors: Wayne Diamond, Research Adviser, Oxfam GB<br />
Shamanthy Ganeshan, Economist Internship, Oxfam GB.

Publication date: April 2009