Climate change is real

No one disputes that Earth's climate is changing or that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased as a result of human activities. The concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are higher now than at any time during the last 420,000 years.

Overwhelming scientific evidence supports the conclusion that observed changes in the global climate are, in large part, due to human activities and primarily related to fossil-fuel consumption patterns. Without urgent action to curb greenhouse-gas emissions, the Earth will become warmer by 2050 than at anytime in the last 10,000 years.

Climate impacts will affect the entire global economy

The impacts of climate change will affect everyone; some have calculated that the costs associated with overcoming climate impacts could even exceed global economic output within a few generations. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC - a high-level, independent, scientific advisory body) developed a scenario for 2080 that predicts the following types of impacts, assuming there is no action to limit greenhouse-gas emissions:

Sea levels could increase by 50cm – Almost twice as many people as now would be exposed to severe flooding from storm surges - 18 million people. The majority of people who would be affected live along the coasts of South and South East Asia
Water availability could decline – Over three billion people in the Middle East and the Indian sub-continent could be facing acute shortages of water
Seasonal rainfall patterns could be severely disrupted – Drought and floods could increase, but the most damaging shifts would likely be relatively small changes in rainfall which, cumulatively, could dramatically decrease global crop yields; areas such as sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia, and tropical areas of Latin America could face major food shortages
The frequency and intensity of extreme-weather events could increase – Leading to loss of life, injury, mass population dislocations, and economic devastation of poor countries
Human health could suffer from a combination of effects – People's resistance to disease could be weakened by heat stress, water shortages, and malnutrition. Increases in air pollution could lead to a rise in respiratory illnesses. In these conditions infectious diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, and schistosomaisis could proliferate rapidly

But they will affect the poorest people first and most

No one will be immune, but climate change will have a disproportionate effect on the lives of people living in poverty in developing countries. Between 1990 and 1998, 94 per cent of the world’s 568 major natural disasters, and more than 97 per cent of all natural disaster-related deaths, were in developing countries.

People living in poverty are more likely to live in unplanned, temporary settlements, which are erected on unsuitable land – most prone to the risks of flooding, storm surges, and landslides
Most eke out a precarious economic existence - subsistence farming or fishing - and have no savings or assets to insure them against external shocks
They lack sanitation and their limited access to clean water, poor diet, and inadequate health-care provision undermine their resistance to infectious diseases
Their lack of social status and the informal nature or remoteness of their settlements means that they do not receive adequate warnings of impending disasters
Relief efforts are least likely to reach them
Lack of education and official neglect means that they have little alternative after disasters but to remain in or return to the disaster-prone areas, with diminished assets, and await the next, calamitous event

Poverty increases people's exposure, and climate change increases the risks; people living in poverty and poor communities are most vulnerable.

Climate change is a human problem, affecting people's rights and justice

Climate change is environmental change, but given that human societies are affected directly and indirectly by the climate system – and given that human activities are driving climate change – it is fundamentally a human problem. Climate change cuts across boundaries. The impacts of climate change are expected to seriously (and disproportionately) affect the livelihoods, health, and educational opportunities of people living in poverty, as well as their chances of survival, both locally in specific areas and globally in general.

As a global environmental challenge, the drivers of which are inextricably linked with high-consumption lifestyles, climate change lies firmly outside the sphere of influence of poor communities and poor countries, who have little say in how the challenge will be addressed. Those with special burdens and/or vulnerabilities such as women, ethnic minorities, and people living with HIV/AIDS are feeling yet another pressure in global warming – one that is fundamentally unjust.

Climate change is happening now; poor people are adapting.

In 1983, Oxfam produced Weather Alert, a briefing paper that recorded the human impacts of various climate anomalies affecting our programmes across the globe – before the term “climate change” was even in use! Oxfam staff and partners working in both emergency and development contexts are now reporting an increase in climate-related anomalies – melting glaciers in Tajikistan; extended droughts and climate variability across Africa; flooding in South Asia – and are concerned about the increasing burden that climate-related disasters present to Oxfam and the wider international humanitarian relief community. A research initiative focusing on climate impacts and community responses in Southern Africa that Oxfam partnered with in 2002 (the ADAPTIVE project) confirms that:
- Climate change is happening now – Though it often is discussed as a phenomenon whose impacts will be felt far in the future, major shifts in climate variability are already in progress
- People living in poverty are adapting to the effects of climate change – Some strategies are more effective than others, and some communities are better able to move beyond coping to adapt and change their livelihoods strategies, but in general the strategies of people living in poverty need to be understood and supported by those seeking to help

Climate change represents a serious threat to poor people and Oxfam’s mission

Oxfam discussed the special threat that climate change poses to people living in poverty in 1992, when climate change first became headline news as a result of the UN Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. Since then, Oxfam has been monitoring the science and politics of climate change, as well as the extent to which it is impacting on the lives of poor people around the world. Given the failure of the international community to seriously and fully address the causes and consequences of climate change, Oxfam is now concerned that it poses a major threat to lives and livelihoods of people living in poverty. It also threatens to undermine recent progress on poverty reduction in many countries, let alone reaching the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). (see Tiempo, issue 54 for further reading.)

For these reasons, Oxfam has joined together with a coalition of UK-based organisations – the UK Working Group on Climate Change and Development – to help raise awareness and explore the linkages between climate change and poverty. We have also joined the Stop Climate Chaos campaigning coalition.

Oxfam recognises the threat that climate change poses as well as the inequitable burden that poor communities and countries are already bearing. In response, Oxfam is actively developing its analysis and understanding to support changes in three areas:
1. Relief: Consistent with its humanitarian mandate, Oxfam needs to ensure that increasing numbers of people living in poverty who are harmed by climate-related disasters have equitable and efficient access to relief; given the ethical dimensions of global climate change, the justification for such relief includes issues of justice as well as standard humanitarian principles of humanity, neutrality, and impartiality.
2. Preparedness and adaptation: Many poor communities need support both to protect their lives and livelihoods from climate-related shocks and stresses, and to pro-actively adapt their livelihood strategies to the changing environmental conditions global warming brings. This requires additional funding through national and international frameworks as well as changes in the ways funds are used to ensure that poor people get the resources they’re entitled to and have a say in how they’re used.
3. Mitigation: Consistent with Oxfam’s Approach, which includes tackling root causes of poverty, we support calls for strong political action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to prevent dangerous climate change. Oxfam also is committed to monitoring and reducing emissions associated with its own operations, including energy use and air travel.