Humanitarian funding to El Niño critically insufficient, says Oxfam

The weather phenomenon is already having a catastrophic impact across much of the world, with wildfires, crop failures and growing severe food and water insecurity. El Niño’s intensity is likely to peak from this month until April next year. Scientists report it could be the strongest on record.

The total global funding for El Nino humanitarian preparation and response is currently $450 million. The UN Central Emergency Response Fund has allocated up to $100 million and has to date disbursed $20 million to six countries. The majority of the remaining $350 million is reliant on appeals and less than 20 per cent has so far been pledged. By comparison, the previous strongest El Niño in 2015-2016 – when more than 60 million people were affected – triggered a $5 billion collective appeal, of which nearly $2 billion was successfully raised.

At last month’s UN General Assembly, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and countries including Vanuatu, India and Barbados sounded strong warnings about the escalating crisis. However, these interventions have yet to translate into a dedicated UN resolution on El Niño, as was the case during previous El Niño events when a formal UN recognition helped to galvanise international action and funding.

Many low and middle-income countries are already in precarious positions because of debt, poverty, weak public services and, in some cases, conflict. Meanwhile, cuts to international aid and climate finance by a third over the last three years have seriously weakened support for them:

• In eastern and southern Africa, 62 million people are facing worsening food insecurity due to flooding and drought, with several countries at risk of famine, including Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia. Water levels are already declining at nearly 80 per cent of water points across The Sahel, with particularly concerning conditions in Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad.
• Across Asia and the Pacific, lack of rain is already affecting millions of people. In Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, Fiji, and Tonga, there is drought, water shortages, desiccated plantations and heightened wildfire risk, while in Sri Lanka high temperatures and lack of rain is causing the worst drought in a decade.
• Across Latin America, 16 million more people are expected to experience food insecurity in the coming months. In Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, Oxfam's recent assessment found that more than 70,000 farming households reported maize crop losses, with nearly four in five losing between 75 and 100 per cent of their harvest.

In Southwest Asia and North Africa, more than 8 million people in Syria and Palestine have acute levels of food insecurity, while Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia are all experiencing recurrent droughts, putting additional pressure on water resources, agricultural production and livelihoods.

In order to cope over the coming months, Oxfam, as with other civil society organisations, has been redesigning and reprioritizing its humanitarian programming with partners across multiple countries, including:

• In the Philippines, partnering with forecasting agencies for early warning, installing water storage in communities where there have been significant declines in rainfall and building preparedness capacity with communities.
• In Timor Leste and Indonesia, supporting vulnerable communities through water conservation initiatives and climate smart agriculture practices,
• In Kenya, working with community-based organisations, youth responders and residents in flood-risk zones to map local risks and establish resilience hubs. Also, planning for cash transfers, emergency shelter materials, women dignity kits and water and sanitation support.
• In Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, providing cash transfers, vouchers and food assistance, strengthening early warning systems and supporting community seed banks. Oxfam is also generating evidence to inform food security analyses and humanitarian decision-making.

The crisis is expected to further increase food, fuel and fertiliser costs which are already spiralling due to the conflict in Iran. This will cause further disruptions to food supply chains and increase volatility in global markets.